It is fun to look back every so often and see if the industry analysts where correct or not. More often then not they are incorrect. Hindsight is always 20/20 as they say. The oil change industry is no exception either. In January of 2002 there were some pretty aggressive predictions made in the fast lube industry.
This was right before a major player Penske Auto Services at all the local Kmarts, took a big hit with 500 Kmart stores closing. I also see a new trend with Wal*Mart lowering prices and killing business due to the cost issue. Everyone want a good deal and an oil change from Wal-Mart is just that at $12.95. According to the bureau of statistics there is a shortage of over 60,000 auto technicians in the industry now and growing; big problem for service. No one seemed to mention the shortages leading up to 2000. Unemployment is also a significant factor because people were be cutting costs, that means going to Wal*Mart for $12.95 oil changes instead of industry averages of $26.95.
Training is also still an issue. Turn-over was an issue but may not be in the future. For